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Increasing Life Expectancy, Pension Risks, and Policy Responses
Mu Huaizhong, Fan Lulu, Chen Xi
Population Research    2021, 45 (1): 3-18.  
Abstract422)      PDF (1343KB)(195)       Save
With the trend of increasingly longer life expectancy, the pension risks rise. Under the constraint of actuarial equilibrium in the life cycle of pension insurance, policy designs largely affect peoples livelihood and consumption in the postepidemic period. The results show that: longer life expectancy will exacerbate decline of the replacement rate of average social wage and increase the risk of pension security in the last years of life. Increasing the pension adjustment index of older retirees is one of the policy options to solve the problem. However, raising the adjustment level will raise the actuarial imbalance risk over the life cycle. It is difficult to solve the dilemma between raising the pension payment and maintaining the actuarial balance by raising the minimum number of years for contributions. Delaying retirement as well as linking the calculation and payment coefficient of individual account, life expectancy, and adjustment index can realize the Pareto improvement of raising the level of security and maintaining the actuarial balance.
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The Effect of Population Agglomeration on Heterogeneity of Regional Labor Productivity
Chen Xinying
Population Research    2015, 39 (1): 85-.  
Abstract653)      PDF (126KB)(1079)       Save
The conventional spatial homogeneity hypothesis is unable to account for the extent to which population agglomeration affects labor productivity in the context of spatial heterogeneity in China. Using provincial panel data from 2000 to 2012,a heterogeneity test is performed with spatial panel regression and threshold panel regression to investigate the non-linear relationship between population agglomeration and labor productivity. Population agglomeration tends to improve labor productivity but with marked regional differences,showing an inverted U shape relationship which has triple nonlinear threshold characteristics.Differentiated Population policies need to be carried out for different cities according to their stage in the inverted U shape relationship. During the urbanization of Midwest China,education policies are especially important to address the loss of labor productivity due to the excessive agglomeration of the homogeneous lowgrade labor force.
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